From June 15 to 17, Mark Carney hosted the leaders of the world's largest economies at the Kananaskis Country Lodge in Alberta. It was the first G7 summit in Canada since 2018, the first chance for the new prime minister to host Donald Trump on Canadian soil, and the first major international stage for the "elbows up" trade posture that swept Carney into office.
Two weeks later, with the dust settled, here is what came out of the summit, what didn't, and what it means for Canadian cross-border carriers heading into the second half of 2025.
Why Kananaskis Mattered
This was supposed to be the moment Carney either de-escalated or formalized the trade fight with Washington. The Government of Canada's pre-summit briefing framed the agenda as built around three themes: economic security, AI and energy infrastructure, and a coordinated G7 approach to the conflict in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine.
Trade with Washington was supposed to be discussed in bilateral side meetings, not in plenary. That changed within hours of arrival. The Iran-Israel war that began on June 13 dominated the early sessions and pulled Trump out of the summit on day two. CBC's reporting on Trump's early departure noted that he flew back to Washington late on June 16 to oversee the US response to the Iran crisis.
Trump's Early Exit and What It Signalled
Trump's departure cost the summit its most anticipated moment: a face-to-face working session with Carney on Canada-US trade. The two leaders met for roughly 35 minutes on the morning of June 16, then again briefly the same afternoon before Trump left.
"The conversation was direct. We agreed there are issues to work through, and we agreed to keep working through them. We did not sign anything." - Mark Carney, post-summit press conference, June 17, 2025
Carney's framing afterward was deliberately measured. No tariff rollback was announced. No CUSMA renegotiation timeline was set. The two leaders described their conversation as constructive, but produced nothing concrete that affects current cross-border duty rates.
The Carney-Trump Bilateral
What was discussed, according to readouts from both sides, included the IEEPA fentanyl tariff (Trump remained committed to the framework), Section 232 steel and aluminum (no movement), the CUSMA review timeline (preliminary discussion of formal Article 34.7 mechanics for July 2026), and energy cooperation including LNG export expansion to the US Gulf Coast. Reuters reported that the two leaders agreed to "intensify" working-level conversations, which in diplomatic terms means more frequent meetings between USTR and Global Affairs Canada negotiators.
For carriers, the practical takeaway is that no tariff is coming off in 2025. The framework remains in force. The CUSMA review is still scheduled for July 2026.
Trade Outcomes and the Communique
The Kananaskis communique, published June 17, was significantly thinner than past G7 statements on trade. Bloomberg's analysis noted that the document avoided naming China, avoided endorsing the WTO appellate body's recent decisions, and avoided language committing G7 members to refrain from new tariffs against each other.
What did get into the communique: a commitment to coordinated G7 critical minerals investment, with Canada pledging $2 billion to a shared development fund; expanded AI safety cooperation; and a pledge to coordinate on Ukraine reconstruction financing. None of these directly affect cross-border trucking, but the critical minerals commitment positions Canada to capture more processing and refining onshore, which would generate domestic freight volume over the medium term.
What Cross-Border Carriers Should Take From This
Three things for the trucking industry. First, no relief is coming on the existing tariff regime in 2025. Carriers and shippers operating cross-border should plan for IEEPA, Section 232 and Liberation Day tariffs to remain in force through year-end and likely longer.
Second, the CUSMA review track is now confirmed for July 1, 2026. That gives carriers and shippers a planning horizon. Lobbying, industry submissions, and supply chain restructuring should all be calibrated to influence the July 2026 starting position.
Third, the Carney-Trump working relationship is functional but not warm. Cross-border trade negotiations through the rest of 2025 will be incremental, slow, and easily disrupted by unrelated events (the Iran war is the most recent example). Carriers should not expect dramatic policy shifts on short notice.
A Second-Half-of-2025 Playbook
Lock In Carrier Capacity Through Year-End
Q3 and Q4 freight will absorb the cumulative cost of the tariff regime. Carriers with strong cross-border programs will be over-subscribed by August. Lock in capacity now.
Engage With CUSMA Review Submissions
Industry consultation periods for the July 2026 review will run through 2025 and early 2026. Submissions made now have the longest planning runway to influence the final negotiating position.
Watch Critical Minerals Lane Development
The $2 billion G7 critical minerals fund will direct investment toward Canadian processing capacity, particularly in BC, Saskatchewan and northern Ontario. Freight infrastructure connecting these projects to ports will be in demand.
Plan for Iran-Driven Diesel Pressure
The Iran-Israel war that pulled Trump out of Kananaskis is now affecting global oil markets. Build fuel surcharge headroom into Q3 contracts.
Stay Engaged With Carrier Communication
The pace of policy moves through 2025 will reward carriers who pick up the phone before invoices land. Build the carrier relationship as a primary risk-management tool, not a procurement line.
Keylink runs Canada-USA full truckload lanes for shippers planning operations through the CUSMA review window.
Talk to Our Team →The Bottom Line
Kananaskis was not the breakthrough some had hoped for, and not the breakdown others feared. It was the first formal moment of the Carney-Trump trade relationship, conducted under the shadow of an Iran war that will affect Canadian freight more than the summit communique itself. The CUSMA review is now formally on the calendar for July 2026. Until then, the tariff regime stays.
For Canadian cross-border carriers, the operational reality is unchanged. The strategic reality is now clearer: a 12-month negotiating runway, a confirmed CUSMA timeline, and a working but unwarming bilateral. Carriers and shippers who plan to that horizon will outperform those who continue to wait for short-term relief.
At Keylink, we are running our cross-border lanes through the long version of this story. The trucks are moving. So are we.
