For 12 days in June, Canadian trucking ran on the assumption that diesel could go anywhere. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets began on June 13. The US joined on June 22 with strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. A ceasefire was announced by June 24. By the time the diplomatic dust settled, Canadian on-highway diesel had jumped 20% from its early-June baseline, then settled at roughly 12% above pre-war levels.
One month on, here is what happened, why diesel didn't go further, and what carriers are doing about Q3 fuel risk.
12 Days, From June 13 to June 24
The conflict began with Operation Rising Lion, an Israeli air campaign launched on June 13 targeting Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities and senior IRGC commanders. BBC's running coverage tracked daily exchanges of missiles and drones between the two countries.
On June 22, the US joined directly. President Trump announced Operation Midnight Hammer, a coordinated B-2 bomber strike on Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities. Reuters reported the strikes used GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, the only US weapon capable of reaching Fordow's underground centrifuge halls.
Iran retaliated on June 23 with a ballistic missile strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the US Central Command headquarters. The strike caused no fatalities. Trump announced a ceasefire on June 24, brokered through Qatari mediation. AP News reported that both sides accepted the framework within hours, ending the kinetic phase of the conflict.
Why Oil Spiked, Then Settled
Brent crude jumped from $68 per barrel on June 12 to a peak of $82 on June 23, the morning of the Iran retaliation. The market priced in a high probability that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and one-third of seaborne LNG transits.
"The market spent ten days asking 'will Hormuz close?' Once the ceasefire held and Iran did not move on shipping, prices fell almost as fast as they rose. The lesson for next time is that geopolitical premiums burn off quickly when the worst case doesn't happen." - Energy commodities analyst, Toronto-based bank
By June 30, Brent was back below $73. By mid-July, it had stabilized in the $74-76 range. The International Energy Agency's monthly Oil Market Report estimated the geopolitical premium at $4-6 per barrel post-ceasefire, attributable to ongoing concerns about supply chain resilience.
What Canadian Carriers Saw at the Pumps
Diesel doesn't move in lockstep with crude. Refining margins, regional logistics, carbon tax components, and seasonal demand all play a role. Natural Resources Canada's weekly diesel benchmarks showed the national average rising from $1.62 per litre in early June to a peak of $1.94 in late June, before easing to $1.81 by mid-July.
For a Class 8 tractor running 200 litres per refuel, the spike added roughly $64 per tank. For a 25-truck fleet refueling daily, that's $1,600 per day in unmodelled fuel cost during the peak two weeks.
Why Hormuz Closure Risk Did Not Disappear
The ceasefire ended the kinetic war, but the structural risk to global energy logistics remains elevated. Iran's leadership rotation, its degraded but not destroyed nuclear program, and its incentive to demonstrate naval reach all keep Hormuz closure as a tail risk. Bloomberg's analysis noted that insurance war risk premiums for tankers transiting Hormuz remain at twice their pre-war levels even after the ceasefire.
For Canadian trucking, the carry-through is that diesel pricing is now operating with a permanent geopolitical headroom. Rules of thumb that worked in 2024 ($1.50-$1.65 diesel as the band) are no longer reliable. Surcharge formulas need to track weekly NRCan benchmarks rather than fixed tables.
How Fuel Surcharges Caught Up
Carriers running fixed surcharge tables took a brutal three weeks. Index-linked carriers tracked the benchmark and passed the cost through transparently to shippers. The contrast in the second half of June was the clearest case study in years for moving to weekly index-linked formulas.
Most surcharge tables are calibrated to a base diesel price of $1.20-$1.30 per litre with stepped increases. At $1.94 diesel, those tables generate a surcharge that lags the actual fuel cost by 8-12 cents per litre, depending on the formula. On a 1,000-mile cross-border run, that translates to $80-$120 in unrecovered fuel cost per load.
A Q3 Fuel-Risk Playbook
Move to Weekly Index-Linked Surcharges
If your fuel surcharge is on a fixed table, replace it before Q3 close. Track NRCan or DOE weekly diesel benchmarks. Both shipper and carrier benefit from the transparency, especially in volatile pricing.
Build Hormuz Risk Into Q3 Quotes
The market is pricing a permanent 5-8% diesel premium against pre-war levels. Build that into Q3 contract pricing. Walk away from carriers or shippers unwilling to accept it.
Lock Long-Distance Lanes With Tolerance Bands
Long cross-border lanes are most exposed. Negotiate fuel cost tolerance bands of plus or minus 10% with auto-adjustment triggers above that.
Monitor Tanker Insurance Premiums
War risk insurance for Hormuz transits is the leading indicator for diesel volatility. When premiums spike, diesel follows within 7-10 days. Watch the insurance market for early warning.
Communicate Fuel Cost Transparency
Shippers facing surcharge increases respond better to clear weekly benchmarks than to surprise invoice line items. Make your surcharge mechanics visible in every quote.
Keylink runs cross-border lanes with weekly index-linked fuel surcharges. Shippers see exactly what they pay for fuel and why.
Talk to Our Team →The Bottom Line
The 12-day Iran-Israel war is over. The Canadian diesel market it leaves behind is permanently different. Geopolitical risk premiums on Hormuz transit are now the baseline, not an emergency. Surcharge formulas built for 2024 conditions are obsolete. Carriers and shippers operating with old assumptions are absorbing real costs.
The cleaner pathway forward is to treat diesel as a transparent, weekly-tracked input cost, with shipper visibility into the benchmark and surcharge mechanics. The carriers who do this build trust through volatility. The carriers who don't find shippers questioning every fuel line item.
At Keylink, our surcharge tracks NRCan weekly. Our shippers see the math. The next geopolitical shock won't catch our pricing flat-footed.
