Halfway through 2024, the Canadian freight market is two and a half years into a recession that has rewritten the basics of trucking economics. Spot rates have not recovered. Carrier exits are accelerating, not stabilizing. Diesel is well above 2019 baselines while contract rates remain stuck near 2019 levels. Six months in, here is what the H1 picture looks like and how disciplined operators are setting up for H2.
H1 2024 Snapshot
Total Canadian for-hire trucking tonnage is running 3-4% below H1 2023, which itself was below H1 2022. Statistics Canada's monthly trucking data shows the year-over-year contraction is now in its 22nd consecutive month, the longest sustained downturn since the global financial crisis.
The macro picture explains most of it. Canadian retail sales have been flat for three quarters. Construction starts are well below trend. Industrial production is decelerating. The Bank of Canada noted weak goods demand as a primary reason for cutting the policy rate to 4.75% on June 5, the first cut in this cycle.
Spot Rates: Stuck at the Bottom
Canadian dry van spot rates ended Q2 2024 at $1.93 per mile (excluding fuel), unchanged in real terms from Q4 2023 and roughly 18% below the 2022 peak. DAT iQ's rate tracking shows H1 2024 as the first half-year on record where spot rates moved less than 4% in either direction.
"The market is grinding. There's no excitement. There's just the slow attrition of carriers who can't make payments anymore." - DAT chief economist, June 2024 industry briefing
The story underneath the flat headline rate is more complicated. Cross-border lane rates have firmed slightly, particularly on Pacific Northwest and Midwest routes, while regional Canadian dry van has weakened. Reefer rates remain depressed. Flatbed has held up best, supported by oilfield activity in Alberta and BC LNG construction.
Carrier Exits Are Accelerating
Roughly 9,800 motor carriers exited the Canadian for-hire industry in H1 2024 alone, on pace to exceed 2023's full-year exit count. The Canadian Trucking Alliance attributes the acceleration to three factors: continued spot-rate weakness, elevated insurance costs, and aging owner-operators reaching retirement without successors.
What is not happening, despite the exits, is meaningful capacity tightening. New entrants and survivors are absorbing the freight that exiting carriers leave behind, faster than the market can rebalance. The result is the longest sustained low-rate environment in Canadian trucking history.
Cross-Border Volumes Holding Up
Cross-border lanes are the bright spot. Canada-US truck trade is up 4% year-over-year through May, supported by US construction demand for Canadian softwood and continued Mexican near-shoring shifting cross-border supply chains. US Bureau of Transportation Statistics data through May 2024 confirms the year-over-year volume gain on truck flows in both directions.
For Canadian carriers with cross-border programs, this is where the H2 opportunity sits. Rates remain depressed, but volume is real, and shippers are willing to commit to consistent capacity providers in exchange for service.
What Shippers Are Hearing
Through the first half of 2024, shippers have grown comfortable with the soft market. Multiple-bid procurement, low-cost-wins decisions, and short-tender windows have become routine. The risk for shippers is that this strategy stops working when the market turns. The carriers offering the lowest rates today are often the ones closest to exit.
An H2 Survival Playbook
Concentrate on Lanes With Density
The carriers surviving best are running fewer lanes with deeper density. Empty miles are the killer in a low-rate environment. Run paired loads or walk away.
Invest in Driver Retention
Driver turnover is expensive at any rate level and devastating at current ones. Focus on home time, equipment quality, and dispatch respect. Drivers who stay through the recession are the ones running for you when it turns.
Audit Your Insurance Renewal
Commercial truck insurance has risen 20-30% in two years. Renewal time is when carriers make or break their cost structure. Shop the market every cycle.
Lean Into Cross-Border
Cross-border lanes are the strongest part of the Canadian market. If you have authority and capacity, build the cross-border program now. The earlier you commit, the better the H2 contract awards.
Watch the Election Calendar
The US election in November will reshape the trade environment. Canadian carriers running south should be modeling tariff scenarios now. Shippers should be doing the same.
Keylink runs Canada-USA full truckload lanes for shippers committing to consistent capacity through a difficult freight market.
Talk to Our Team →The Bottom Line
H1 2024 closes with the freight recession entering its 23rd month with no clear exit signal. Bank of Canada rate cuts may stimulate demand by Q4, but the lag is long and the floor is lower than it was a year ago. Carriers who survive H2 will be the ones with disciplined lane economics, retained drivers, and shippers who value reliability over the lowest quote.
At Keylink, we are running our cross-border lanes with the same discipline we have run them for years: density, paperwork, communication, and drivers we treat like the asset they are. The recession will end. We plan to be here when it does.
