Six months ago, the Canadian freight market was being asked whether it could survive the year. The IEEPA tariff was new, the steel and aluminum duties had just landed, and Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs were reshaping landed costs across half the goods that move by truck. Q3 closes with the answer: yes, with pain, and with a meaningfully different shape.
Here is the Q3 2025 picture: spot rates are firmer than they have been in two years, capacity has tightened on the lanes that matter, and the carriers who restructured early are pulling ahead of the field.
Where We Are at the Nine-Month Mark
Total Canadian for-hire trucking tonnage in Q3 is running roughly 4% below the same quarter in 2024, but 7% above the January 2025 trough. Statistics Canada's monthly trucking data shows the second-quarter rebound has held into Q3, helped by Carney's election outcome stabilizing the political environment and shippers committing to capacity rather than continuing to wait.
Cross-border volumes are the most-watched indicator. US Bureau of Transportation Statistics data through August showed northbound truck volumes from the US into Canada down 11% year-over-year, and southbound volumes down 7%. Both numbers are improvements over the early-Q2 lows of -18% and -14% respectively.
Spot Rates: Firmer, Not Strong
Canadian dry van spot rates ended Q3 at $2.21 per mile (excluding fuel), up 6.8% year-over-year and the highest since Q3 2022. DAT iQ's monthly rate publications attribute the firming to capacity exits, not demand growth, but the result for active carriers is the same: rates are recoverable, contract negotiations are friendlier, and shippers are no longer trying to drive rates down on every renewal.
"What we're seeing in Q3 is the freight recession finally washing out. Capacity exits in 2024 are converting to capacity discipline in 2025. Rates aren't booming, but they're sustainable, and that hasn't been true in three years." - DAT industry analyst, mid-Q3 commentary
Capacity: A Real Tightening Cycle
Roughly 8,400 motor carriers exited the Canadian for-hire market in the first three quarters of 2025, on top of the nearly 10,000 that exited in 2024. The cumulative effect is a 12-15% reduction in available for-hire capacity since the start of the freight recession.
The mix of exits matters. The smallest single-truck and two-truck operations are leaving fastest, often through driver retirement or transition to private fleet work. Mid-size carriers (10-50 trucks) are consolidating into stronger regional players. Large carriers are holding share but not growing.
Cross-Border Volumes Have Stabilized
The CUSMA-compliant carve-out, extended through Q3 by executive order, has meant that the bulk of cross-border volume is moving without IEEPA duty. Steel, aluminum and energy continue to absorb tariff costs. The Canadian Trucking Alliance's Q3 update noted that cross-border volume is now running about 90% of pre-tariff baseline, a meaningful recovery from Q2 lows.
What hasn't recovered: shipper appetite for long-term cross-border contract commitments without tariff escalator clauses. The new normal is contracts with explicit pass-through language for tariff changes. Carriers and shippers who navigated the first three quarters together have built a working language around this.
What the Outperformers Did Differently
Three patterns separate the carriers performing well in Q3 from those that didn't. They moved early on weekly index-linked fuel surcharges, replacing fixed tables before the Iran-Israel diesel spike caught the market in June. They invested in CUSMA documentation discipline, with origin certificates pre-cleared and brokers integrated into dispatch. They concentrated capacity on lanes where they have density, rather than chasing every cross-border opportunity.
Q4 Outlook: Holiday Season Under Tariffs
Q4 freight runs into the first full peak season under the new tariff regime. Retail import patterns have shifted: more freight is being staged in Canadian fulfillment centres for Canadian consumption, less is being routed through US transload operations. Cross-border holiday flows on tariffed categories will see lower volume than 2024.
For carriers, Q4 will reward density discipline over generalist coverage. Lanes with consistent shipper relationships will outperform spot exposure. Carriers without strong cross-border programs will see Q4 pricing erode as Q1 capacity loosens.
Keylink runs full truckload Canada-USA lanes with documented capacity through Q4. Lock in before the peak season tightens further.
Talk to Our Team →The Bottom Line
Q3 2025 closes with a Canadian freight market that has absorbed the tariff regime and adapted. Rates are firmer, capacity is tighter, and the carriers who built strong cross-border discipline are winning the work. The shippers who locked in capacity before peak are the ones who will get loads moved on time through Q4.
The next major event is the US government shutdown threat at the end of September and the broader US fiscal calendar. We will be watching closely.
At Keylink, our Q3 has been about doing the basics well: documented loads, weekly index surcharges, and dispatch that picks up the phone. The freight market has rewarded those choices. We will keep making them.
