Keylink Transport fuel watch banner: Diesel Crossed Six Dollars, with the US average price, the year over year increase, and the distillate inventory line
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Diesel Crossed Six Dollars

Shahazeen Shaheer Vice President of Marketing, Keylink Transport
10 min read
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US retail diesel averaged about $6.06 a gallon today, the first time it has ever been above six dollars. The record it broke was set less than a week ago at $5.85. A year ago the same measure sat at $3.71.

Ten days ago we wrote that the cheap freight era had ended, using a diesel benchmark of $5.65. That number is already stale. This post is about the part of the story that gets skipped in the headlines: what a vertical fuel move does to a freight contract, and why the surcharge mechanism in most agreements quietly fails exactly when it is needed.

$6.06 US average retail diesel per gallon today, an all-time high Source: AAA via Rigzone
+$2.30 Higher than the same week last year, when diesel averaged $3.71 Source: Rigzone
100M Barrels, the distillate inventory line US stocks are falling below Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
C$2.51 Canadian retail diesel per litre in early September, before the excise tax returned Source: GlobalPetrolPrices

A Record, Then Another One

The speed matters more than the level. Setting an all-time high is a headline. Setting one, then beating it within a week, is a supply problem that has not finished working through the system.

Diesel Set a Record, Then Broke It Again
A 63 percent increase year over year. No freight contract signed in 2025 assumed this line, which is why fuel clauses are being reopened rather than renegotiated at renewal.
Line chart of US average retail diesel: $3.71 per gallon in September 2025, $5.85 last week, and $6.06 on September 11 2026, the first time above six dollars, with a callout noting it is $2.30 higher than the same week last year and the previous record was set less than a week earlier.
Sources: AAA and GasBuddy retail averages via Rigzone, September 2026

For a truck running 150,000 kilometres a year at 40 litres per 100 kilometres, every 10 cent per litre move is about $6,000 a year. The increase since last September is not a rounding error on a cost line, it is a different business model.

Why Diesel and Not Gasoline

Gasoline has been comparatively stable. That tells you this is not a crude price story, it is a distillate story, and distillate is what moves freight, farms and heats buildings.

Why Diesel and Not Gasoline
The forecast is the uncomfortable part. Inventories are not expected back inside the normal band until well into 2027, which means the next shock lands on an already thin cushion.
Graphic showing US distillate inventory under 100 million barrels, forecast below the five-year low through 2026 and most of 2027, alongside supply pressures: lost distillate supply from the Middle East, Russia and China, attacks on Russian refining infrastructure, fall refinery maintenance season, and harvest demand from agriculture.
Sources: US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook; industry reporting, September 2026

Two of those four pressures are geopolitical and neither is under anyone's operational control. We have watched this transmission line before, first when the Iran-Israel conflict moved Canadian diesel and again during this spring's oil shock. The mechanism repeats: a supply event abroad, a distillate squeeze, and a Canadian pump price that moves before anyone renegotiates anything.

What It Looks Like in Canada

Canadian retail diesel was around C$2.51 a litre in early September, at the top of its recorded range. Two Canadian-specific additions sit on top of the global price. The federal carbon levy adds roughly 21 cents a litre to diesel. And the federal fuel excise tax came back on September 8, adding 4 cents a litre after a holiday that ran from April 20.

"A carrier does not get to buy fuel at the index. It buys at the pump, today, and gets paid at last week's average."

Why the Surcharge Does Not Catch It

Fuel surcharges were designed for a market that drifts. Most tables reference a published average from the prior week, update on a fixed schedule, and start from a peg, the base price above which the surcharge applies. In a flat market that works fine. In a vertical move it structurally underpays.

Why the Surcharge Lags the Pump
The gap is not anyone behaving badly. It is arithmetic: the truck buys at today's price, the invoice pays at last week's index, and the faster the climb the wider the gap.
Illustrative line chart comparing actual fuel cost at the pump rising steeply against surcharge recovery indexed to last week's average rising in steps behind it, with the gap at week four marked as the amount the carrier absorbs.
Illustrative example. Actual recovery depends on the index, the peg and the update frequency written into your agreement.

Three consequences follow, and they arrive in this order. Carriers absorb the gap first. Then weaker carriers stop bidding the lanes where the gap is widest, which is usually long haul and low density. Then the base rate resets at renewal to cover what the surcharge structurally cannot, which is the mechanism behind the 43 percent spot increase already visible in the market.

Four Things to Check in Your Fuel Agreement

1
Which index, and is it the right country. A Canadian lane priced off a US benchmark inherits the exchange rate as a second variable. Know which published number your table references and how it is converted.
2
How often it updates. Weekly is normal, monthly is common, and in a month like this one a monthly update is a large uncompensated gap. If the table cannot update faster, the base rate has to carry the difference.
3
The peg. This is the base price where the surcharge begins. Pegs set years ago against a cheaper market quietly shift cost onto whoever did not read the schedule.
4
The assumed fuel economy. Every surcharge table assumes miles per gallon. An optimistic assumption understates recovery on every load, forever, and it is the single most overlooked line in a fuel schedule. Our guide to reading a freight quote covers where else this hides.

This Is Landing on an Already Loaded Market

Fuel is not arriving alone, which is what makes this quarter difficult to price. Canadian capacity is the tightest in a year at 2.71 trucks per load. Counter-tariffs went live on September 8 across C$27.6 billion of US imports. Equipment replacement costs face a threatened 50 percent tariff on trucks and parts from January. And the administrative savings that AI is genuinely delivering in the back office do not touch the fuel line at all.

Practical effects worth planning for: longer lanes get repriced first because fuel is the largest variable on them, reefer freight takes a second hit because the trailer burns fuel too, and any shipper whose dock habits burn driver hours becomes measurably more expensive to serve when idling costs this much.

We run our own trucks on Canada and US lanes out of Abbotsford and Calgary, so this is our cost line before it is anyone's rate increase.

1
Fuel is quoted separately, with the mechanism visible. You see the index, the update frequency and the peg. Nobody has to reverse engineer why a number moved.
2
We do not hide a spike in the line haul. When fuel moves this fast, burying it produces a rate that has to be reopened, and reopened rates cost trust that is worth more than the margin.
3
We plan routing around the cost. Fewer empty kilometres and tighter lane planning is the only lever that actually reduces fuel burned, which is the discipline in optimizing freight routes.
4
We tell you what we are seeing. Including when the market moves against us. That is the same reason we publish the weekly market notes rather than only good news.
Get a Rate With the Fuel Math Shown

Send us your lanes. You will get a quote with the fuel mechanism written out, so you can see exactly what moves when diesel does.

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Questions We Get Asked

How high is diesel right now?

US retail diesel averaged about $6.06 a gallon on September 11, 2026, the first time above $6 and roughly $2.30 above the same week last year. The previous record of about $5.85 was set less than a week earlier. Canadian retail diesel was around C$2.51 a litre in early September, before the federal excise tax returned on September 8.

Why is diesel rising faster than gasoline?

It is a distillate story, not a crude story. US distillate inventories are forecast below 100 million barrels and under the five-year low through 2026 and most of 2027, driven by lost supply from the Middle East, Russia and China, attacks on Russian refining infrastructure, fall refinery maintenance and harvest demand.

Why does the surcharge not cover the increase?

Most surcharge tables index to a published average from the previous week and update on a fixed schedule. The truck buys fuel at today's price and the invoice pays at last week's, so the carrier absorbs the gap until the index catches up. The faster the climb, the wider the gap.

What should I check in my fuel agreement?

Which index it references, how often it updates, the peg where the surcharge starts, and the assumed fuel economy in the calculation. A weekly update with a realistic peg behaves very differently from a monthly update pegged to a price the market left behind.

Do Canadian taxes make this worse?

They stack on top. The federal carbon levy adds roughly 21 cents a litre to diesel, and the federal excise tax returned September 8 at 4 cents a litre after the holiday that began April 20. Both are fixed additions to a base price already at a record.

Will prices come back down?

The EIA projects diesel averaging about $5.07 a gallon across 2026 and roughly $4.40 in 2027, which implies easing from here. Those forecasts assume no further supply shocks, and the same outlook keeps inventories below the five-year low for most of 2027. Plan for volatility rather than relief.

Sources and Further Reading

References
  1. Rigzone, "USA Diesel Hits $6 Per Gallon for First Time Ever", September 11, 2026, citing AAA and GasBuddy.
  2. US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, on distillate inventories and price forecasts.
  3. Hydrocarbon Processing, "U.S. diesel prices hit record high as conflicts intensify supply crunch", September 2026.
  4. US Energy Information Administration, weekly retail gasoline and diesel prices, the published series most fuel surcharge tables reference.
  5. GlobalPetrolPrices, Canada diesel prices, early September 2026.
  6. Department of Finance Canada, "Temporarily suspending the federal fuel excise tax", on the holiday that ended September 7.
  7. Statistics Canada, monthly average retail fuel prices by geography.

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